Reliability assessment in operational planning of the transmission grid
G. Dogan (gdogan [at] ulb [dot] ac [dot] be), P.E. Labeau (pelabeau [at] ulb [dot] ac [dot] be), J.C. Maun (jcmaun [at] ulb [dot] ac [dot] be), C. Bastiaensen (cindy [dot] bastiaensen [at] elia [dot] be), J. Sprooten (Jonathan [dot] Sprooten [at] elia [dot] be)
Important changes are affecting the electrical power system on both economic and technical aspects. Wider European market integration and a growing share of renewable and distributed energy sources lead to an increase of in the number of active actors, both generating and consuming electrical power, to the downsizing of the generation units and to the scattering of the production units within the electrical grid. These economic changes have many consequences on the operation of the electrical power system.
This changing environment has a major impact on some of the fundamental roles of the Transmission System Operators (TSOs), namely to ensure a high level of security of supply, given the limited predictability of renewable generation and its inherent variability, while making it easier to reach the European Union objective for energy mix for 2020 and beyond. In order to perform these missions while keeping up to the required quality of service, TSOs have to adapt their practices for the long-term planning, (short-term) operational planning and real-time operation.
As renewable generation is affected by uncertainties in magnitude and time, compared to their forecasts, TSOs face the challenge of modifying their approach to operational planning, in order to move from the current (deterministic) methods to probabilistic techniques allowing accounting for this variability in generation. However, despite some pioneering works on the topic, sufficiently efficient probabilistic methods still need to be developed. Therefore, the present project will contribute to an ongoing PhD work, focusing on the development of probabilistic tools and risk indicators to assess the reliability of electricity supply, both well adapted to the time constraints of operational planning and to this evolving context.
The methodology being developed in this PhD project proposes a power system reliability evaluation methodology, which takes into account renewable (e.g. wind and solar) generation forecast, load forecast, cross-border fluxes forecast, market actors’ expected actions for both internal and international trades as well as available information about power system conditions (such as maintenance planning, reliability information on power system components…).
The master thesis will deal with the possible evolutions of the planners’ practice, following the above-mentioned change of paradigm that is under way. It will aim to propose new procedures to enrich the classical N-1 approach, and to develop fast, approximate estimations of the grid planning reliability as a function of the growing accuracy of the forecast, as the planning phase gets closer and closer to real-time.